Books' future: hardcover, softcover or e-reader?

Will curling up with a good book soon mean cuddling up to a computer screen?

Technological advancements could be changing how people read books. The number of people owning e-reading devices (such as Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) has increased 150 per cent from the second quarter of 2008 to the same time period in 2009. In September, Disney launched a website offering paid access to more than 500 full-colour books starring classic characters like Winnie the Pooh and Mickey Mouse, but also newer favorites like Cars and Hannah Montana. There is also excitement about the news that Apple will be jumping into the e-book market.

So, what does this spell for the book industry? It does have some booksellers concerned, and ParetoLogic is hearing all about it. ParetoLogic is located in Victoria B.C., a city which is crammed full of used and new booksellers. Peter Shepherd, who owns Victoria's Shepherd Books, said that digital reading will definitely have an impact.

"There is no doubt that we are affected by e-books," he told the ParetoLogic newsletter. "In this quickly changing technology everyone is affected, from the publishers and the larger chains right down to smaller operations like ours. As more and more books become available online, people are less inclined to go out and buy them at their local book stores. The death of the printed word is inevitable. ... We are in the middle of a huge paradigm shift."

Shepherd pointed to the number of periodicals, such as newspapers and weekly magazines, which are closing. However, he noted that there "is enough of a customer base that insists on the old fashioned book over reading off of a screen." Shepherd doesn't expect a mass, overnight movement away from printed books.

"As younger generations come up utterly adept at the technological world that we have created, and unfamiliar with all the sensory pleasures of books, the publishing industry will be more and more threatened," Shepherd said. "But it will take a long time. Until then, our advice is: read a book."

Often the book industry is compared to the music business, which has suffered as people have switched from CDs to easily accessible – and sometimes free – MP3s. However, Cliff McNeil-Smith, the owner of Tanner's Books, The Children's Bookshop and Tanner's Bargain Books, does not feel this is a fair comparison or an accurate predictor for the future of book stores. McNeil-Smith sets up shop in Sidney, B.C., a community with so many bookstores that the downtown has been affectionately dubbed Booktown.

"For many reasons, including most importantly that listening to music is predominately a passive activity and reading is an active activity, the shift from books to electronic reading has been and, from where I sit as a bookseller and owner of three bookstores, will continue to be very gradual," he told the ParetoLogic newsletter.

His views could certainly be applied to the e-reader market. Although sales have increased, according to a Sept. 15 Globe and Mail story, only about 1.5 per cent of American consumers own one and even fewer in Canada. It will be interesting to see if Apple's proposed e-reader will have the cultural changing impact as its iPod. In a way, Apple is already in the market, because, as the Globe and Mail stated, there are more e-book apps installed on the iPhone than on Kindle and Sony Readers combined.

One of the big draws of e-readers is easy access to a wealth of material. Kindle users can buy Amazon books through the device. Sony Readers can download more than half million free books from Google and its own online store, according to the Globe and Mail.

"The immediacy of being able to fulfill a desire for new reading material on the go has a great appeal for Kindle adopters," Sarah Rotman-Epps, who analyzed the e-reader market for a series of reports by Forrester Research, said in the Globe and Mail article. "Kindle owners echo the delight that iPod owners felt at being able to carry their entire music collection in a slim portable device."

McNeil-Smith believes digital technology will affect various types of printed material differently. Newspapers have already been deeply affected, with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer moving to an online only version earlier this year. Shepherd pointed out that for a while after computers become commonplace in homes and businesses "computer books" were one of the best selling genres.

As for children's books, McNeil-Smith feels that market has already been altered over the past few years with interactive websites, television shows and blockbuster movies for young people. He noted that before Disney launched DisneyDigitalBooks.com, it already boasted a website chockfull of features and content. The new site boasts features such as letting the user click on a word and hearing the computer pronounce it. While the competition for a child's reading time has increased, McNeil-Smith said picture story books are still very popular. A likely factor is that for young children, reading from a book is a social, bonding activity with a parent, teacher, or sibling.

"Children and parents both like and gain from the interaction of reading together, and even as children become better readers, I think it will still be a very gradual shift to online reading," McNeil-Smith said. "What level will online reading reach with young children? Let's just say I'm not planning on shrinking or selling the Children's Bookshop for many years to come!"

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